Doverie Holding – 2025 Q4 review – Outstanding year for the banking sector

Outstanding year for the banking sector

Q4 2025 Results

• Total revenues in Q4 increased by 10.7% year-on-year, reaching EUR 346.1 million. The main driver was the 24.4% growth in banking operation, which reached EUR 213mln and represented over 61% of total revenues. Insurance revenues ceased since the insurance company within the holding was sold to Generali with the deal finalized on 11 Feb 2025. Other business segments contribute 38.4% of total revenue, equivalent to EUR 133 million and they grew by 6.3%.
• Moldindconbank, Doverie’s largest holding, will continue to be a key asset in the group’s portfolio. Although the current period may seem challenging for the business, it represents an investment in future growth and Doverie will benefit, especially after the removal of the profit retention requirement aimed at maintaining the stability of the country’s banking system.
• Additionally, Moldindcombank will likely perform very well in 2026 considering the fact that it is still going to be a high-interest rate environment. The US-Iran War caused high oil prices, which will directly affect the inflation in the US. Additionally, the expected 2 interest rate cuts by the FED to stimulate the economy and boost the stock market are unlikely to happen before the year end due to additional inflation fears. This creates an environment, where banks and financial institutions thrive. The spillover effects in Europe and, in this case, Moldova, will have a positive effect on Doverie’s main asset.
• Net interest income grew 42.3% to EUR 106.5mln. Along with that, the Net income from fees and commissions dropped 10.3% to EUR 23.7mln. This indicates a clear growth in lending, where income from it grew 44.6% to EUR 104.4mln. The drop in the income from fees and commissions stems from the higher growth in expenses, primarily for payment operations to correspondent banks, which increased by 35% to EUR 11.5mln. A note of concern is the increased by 17.8% commissions for the use of debit cards to EUR 18.3mln. This could indicate an aggressively growing card portfolio, where the revenue/cost structure is not fine tuned yet. Alternatively, considering the growing personal loan and mortgage portfolio, it could indicate that the bank manages to increase its retail loan portfolio through its card customers. This way it can utilize higher margins and forgo the smaller losses in this line.
• Moldindconbank announced a 22% growth in its loan portfolio for 2025 reaching EUR 1.28 Bn. As the end of 2025, corporate loans increased by 23.1% and personal loans increased by 34.1% compared to 2024. Considering the growth was 21.5% and 29.3% respectively by Q3, it indicates that the bank had a strategy to concentrate on retail lending.
• Such significant growth is achievable by improving lending conditions, such as more competitive interest rates (which may lead to a decrease in the net interest margin) and higher loan-to-value ratios (e.g. lower down payments required for mortgages). The impact of these changes will lead to an increase in interest income, which is expected to be reflected further in 2026. Default rates are still very similar, which shows that the screening and monitoring are effective.
• The loan portfolio continues to be rather diversified. In corporate loans, the biggest growth was in Production / Industry, which reached 15.29% of the corporate loan portfolio. The second largest is the financial sector, which accounts for 12.86% of corporate loans, followed by General trade with 11.86%. All others are below 9%. In retail, loans for individuals comprise 43.08% and mortgages account for 57.92%.
• The “Other income” category includes profits from five sectors: construction, wine production, DIY products under the Mr. Bricolage brand, medical services and detergent production. Mr. Bricolage sales dominate this category, contributing 82% of the total for EUR 133mln. These revenues plus medical services revenues are the drivers of growth in this category. Medical services revenues grew by 9.09% year-on-year to reach ЕUR 19.5 million, while Mr. Bricolage sales grew by 10.4% to EUR 109 million.
• The non-banking business, with the sale of the insurance company, now represent 38.4% of the portfolio revenue.
• The expenses from banking, insurance and other business sectors dropped by 2% to EUR 147.3mln, but that is entirely due to the missing insurance operations. Otherwise those from banking increased 17.4% to EUR 65mln and those from other business sectors increased by 4.4% to EUR 82.3mln.
• Administrative expenses increased by 8.7% to EUR 105.7mln where the driver was the 15.6% increase in payroll to EUR 77mln.
• Profitability improved significantly. Operating margin added 5.8% reaching 26.2% for EBIT of EUR 90.8mln. EBITDA reached EUR 103.7mln rising by 33.3% with EBITDA margin now reaching 30%. Net Profit reached EUR 63.2mln with Net Margin of 18.3%, rising from 12.6% in 2024.
• The projections for 2026 assume that the bank will continue to be their main revenue source. Considering that interest rate levels are not likely to decline, we assume that it will be an environment, which will be very beneficial for it. Yet, we have assumed a smaller growth than that in 2025 to be on the conservative side. Revenues from possible sales of assets and one-off revenues are excluded. The target price for 2026 YE is EUR 7.91, which represents a 34% upside potential from current levels.

Full report can be downloaded here.