Agria Group – 2025 Q1 cons review –

2025 starting on a positive note

2025 Q1 Consolidated Results

• Agria’s total consolidated revenues increased 6.4% YoY in Q1 2025 to BGN 132.4mln. This time the positive impact is solely from sales, which grew 7.1%YoY to BGN 127.7mln. Government subsidies remained at the same level of BGN 2.9mln.
• In the operational revenues account, the sales of goods and materials, which represent the sale of grains, increased by 6.8% to BGN 105.6mln. The sales of production, which is the oils produced from oilseed grains, marked an increase of 8.2% to BGN 21.7mln. These two revenue streams represent over 99.7% of the sales revenue, the rest of which is sales of services.
• OPEX increased by a smaller amount than revenues – by 1.6% to BGN 127mln. The greatest contributors were External services (adding BGN 2.34mln for an increase of 49%), COGS (adding BGN 1.9mln for an increase of 2% to BGN 92mln) and Personnel expense (adding BGN 1.9mln for an increase of over 29%).
• The decrease of COGS by 16.3% to BGN 426mln and Materials expense – 24.6% to BGN 102mln resulted in EBITDA growing 135% to BGN 10.3mln. EBIT jump from a negative BGN 2mln to positive BGN 4.7mln.
• It is likely that the increase in revenue is due to the increased prices of sunflower seed and sunflower oil on the international markets. As it can be seen on the graph on the next page, the prices of sunflower oil were considerably higher in Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year.
• Net profit moved to a positive territory of BGN 1mln (from BGN 6.1mln Net Loss last year) and the Profit Margin improved by 5.66% reaching 0.75% from -4.91% last year.
• Sunflower oil futures traded near $1,270 per tonne, amid a convergence of drought-induced supply constraints in Ukraine, surging global demand as buyers pivot from palm oil, and scarce seed availability. In Ukraine, responsible for over 70% of global exports, parched southern fields have slashed crushing volumes by 11% in June and 21% year-on-year, lifting Black Sea FOB export quotes by $10–20/ton to about $1,110–1,120/ton and pushing EU DAP interest into the $1,160–1,200 range. Simultaneously, palm oil’s rally has curtailed Southeast Asian exports and redirected importers, India boosted sunflower oil purchases 18% in June to 216 kt, further tightening markets. With global sunflower seed output at a four-year low of roughly 50 Mt, processors continue aggressive buying, fearing a subdued new harvest.
• It is not entirely clear if the company is on the path of debt repayment. The bottom line is that they have shifted maturities as LT debt decreased, while ST debt increased and there was no considerable total debt change YoY (BGN 0.5mln decrease out of BGN 349.5mln total debt). LT bank liabilities dropped 15.6% YoY reaching BGN 68mln and 1.2% for the first 3 months. LT leasing also decreased 19.5% YoY reaching BGN 18mln and 7.3% in the first 3 months. In the same time, ST debt increased 6.7% YoY to BGN 263.3mln.
• The financial expenses, however, decreased 23% to BGN 4.2mln. If we don’t consider the one-off revenue in 2024 from the acquisition of Almagest, financial expenses dropped from 102% from EBIT to 89% of EBIT.
• Inventory increased 30.2% YoY to BGN 221.1mln and 11.9% for the first 3 months. In that, materials increased 13.4% to BGN 153.9mln. In it, the major contributors were sunflower (going up 10% to BGN 98.5mln) and sunflower oil (going up 330% to BGN 27.9mln). Alternatively, the production in progress account increased 33.6% to reach BGN 33mln, where wheat was the biggest contributor with 33.5% to reach BGN 17.7mln.
• These steps indicate that the company is considering a future increase in the prices of its products and they are trying to position themselves favorably for such development. Needless to say, increased prices and increased volumes, as demonstrated currently, will lead to a very positive result in 2025. We have seen the prices of the main products reverse the negative trend in the second half of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, which means that this strategy is already yielding positive results.
• It is not clear how long the high sunflower prices will benefit Agria as it is clearly a global supply problem. In this environment, however, they are positioning for an upside. The shift towards greater value production (oil) is clear and this can be a strategic focus, which can guarantee the growth of the sales in the future years.

Full report can be viewed here.