Agria Group – Q2 2025 cons review – Debt repayment going strong, questions about liquidity in 2026

2025 Q2 Consolidated Results

• Agria’s total consolidated revenues increased 16.2% YoY in Q2 2025 to BGN 359.5mln. Sales grew 15.4% to BGN 347mln and government subsidies increased 20% to BGN 6mln.
• In the operational revenues account, the sales of goods and materials, which represent the sale of grains, increased by 10.3% to BGN 286.7mln. The sale of produce marked an even bigger increase of 52.2% to BGN 58.7mln. These two revenue streams represent over 99.5% of the sales revenue, the rest of which is sales of services.
• OPEX increased by a greater amount than revenues – by 17.6% to BGN 354.3mln. The greatest contributors were COGS (adding BGN 49mln growing 22% to BGN 268.8mln), External services (adding BGN 3.8mln for an increase of 29% to BGN 16.8mln), Personnel expense (adding BGN 3.1mln for an increase of 22% to BGN 17.3mln) and Amortization (adding BGN 3.1mln for an increase of 37% to BGN 11.2mln).
• The big increase in COGS, as well as the steady hikes in External services, Personnel expense and Amortization, were too big for the positive increase from Changes in reserves (which removed BGN 5.7mln from OPEX) and profitability metrics suffered seriously. EBIT was nearly wiped out (going from BGN 5mln to BGN 0.7mln) and EBITDA dropped 10% to BGN 11.9mln.
• It is likely that the increase in revenue is due to the increased prices of sunflower seed and sunflower oil on the international markets. As it can be seen on the graph on the next page, the prices of sunflower oil were considerably higher in Q2 2025 compared to the same period last year.
• Net profit moved to a positive territory of BGN 1mln (from BGN 6.1mln Net Loss last year) and the Profit Margin improved by 5.66% reaching 0.75% from -4.91% last year.
• As of October 2025, sunflower oil futures soared toward $1,390 per tonne, an almost a three year high as supply has tightened at the same time as competing vegetable oil cushions have thinned, forcing buyers to compete for limited barrels. Prices jumped as Russia raised export duties on sunflower oil at the end of September which directly raised export costs and reduced available exportable volumes. Ukraine’s exports have also been well below prior seasons after a poor summer and shipping disruptions, leaving a large structural gap in global shipments that normally anchors world supplies. Europe’s dry summer further cut expected domestic sunflower seed output and lowered crush volumes, tightening nearby availability for edible oil users. At the same time global palm oil inventories are set to fall into year-end seasonal lows and India is boosting edible oil purchases, so the usual substitution outlet is less able to absorb the shortfall.
• The debt repayment strategy is clearly underway. While last year they had 17 long term facilities in Q2 2024 with a total outstanding debt of BGN 81.2mln, by Q2 2025 it was 14 long term facilities with a total of BGN 65.5mln and all of them seem to be serviced as per repayment plans as the outstanding amounts on all decrease. The long term exposure decreased by BGN 15.7mln, the LT leasing exposure decreased by BGN 5.2mln and the short term exposure decreased by BGN 15.6mln. The total debt drop over the last year is BGN 36.5mln. There was an increase in H2 2024 and the drop over the last 6 months in debt is BGN 3.4mln from LT bank debt, BGN 2.2mln from leasing debt and BGN 56.2mln from ST debt. This is definitely good news as the size of the ST debt by year end (BGN 265mln) was worrying investors.
• The financial expenses logically decreased 32% to BGN 8.1mln.
• Liquidity concerns: It is clear that COGS, external services and personnel expense affected profitability negatively. The bad news is that all those are in a way associated with the macro environment and the company will have little choice but to accept it. The worrying trend is that revenue from sales increased 15%, but COGS went up 22%. In the same time, inventory dropped 10% since Q2 2024 and 67% since YE 2024, where the major sub-account Stock decreased by 50%. Within that, sunflower dropped massively from BGN 89.3mln to BGN 15.7mln. Wheat also decreased by similar percentage dropping for the 6 months from BGN 30.6mln to BGN 14.9mln. Bearing in mind there was no noticeable price decrease in international markets of those commodities, it is clear they were selling mostly those 2 commodities (heavier focus on sunflower). Considering all that, it is possible that the company is not as effective as we’d like to see them. With EBITDA for the 6 months of BGN 11.9mln and cash of BGN 8.5mln, it is clear that the company will be able to service their debt in the near future, but there are questions for the prospects in 2026.
• The greater trade resulted in significantly greater Client receivables. YoY the account increased 33% to BGN 165.6mln and 90% of the increase is due to increased receivables from clients (added BGN 13mln for a 32.7% increase to BGN 52.7mln) and receivables from commercial loans (added 24.3mln for a 112.5% increase to BGN 46mln). They are within Current assets, so a large portion of that will hopefully be repaid within the next 12 months, which can help with the possible liquidity concerns and the debt repayment in the next quarters.

Full review can be accessed here.